Opposition Win in Serbia Ends 14 Years of Ruling Party Control, Foreign Policy to Follow

Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party lost control of Serbia on Sunday after 14 years in power, with the opposition Student List winning the election and sending the country into a transition ahead of presidential polls in December.

The result has prompted questions about whether Belgrade will pivot toward the West. Analysts say the answer is not soon. Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, said talks with neighbouring countries are not first on the list of tasks. "These questions will not be on the agenda immediately," he said. He said the new authorities must deal with what he described as a system that has "captured all democratic institutions", along with problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector. "Tidying up at home" comes before "solving problems with the neighbours", Popov said.

Regional ties have been strained for years. Relations with Croatia are "not frozen" but marked by sharp words, and Vucic recently accused Zagreb of organising a "colour revolution" during mass protests in Serbia. Popov said relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved. On Croatia, he described a pattern in which "Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate", within a system that "functioned on the production of internal and external enemies". He also said Belgrade and Zagreb quietly align on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik while Zagreb favours a third entity.

Popov said a new government led by experts and civic leaders could stabilise the region and revive Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union. "The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government's task will be to repair those damaged ties," he said.

On Russia, Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, said foreign policy will change the least under the new government. "Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place," he said. He said Moscow never fully trusted Vucic and viewed him instead as "the devil they knew". Russian influence will decline with the end of uncritical coverage of Moscow in Vucic-controlled tabloids and media, and intelligence cooperation will be downgraded, he said, but Serbia will not turn hawkish on Moscow overnight. "The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West," he said. "The new Serbian government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow." Serbia will keep its policy of not recognising the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, he said, while the future of ammunition deliveries to Kyiv is open: "there is a question mark over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule".

Ties with Israel will not be cut, but contracts signed under Vucic will be reviewed, said Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst. "The new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel, but it will certainly re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia," Jaksic said. He added that Netanyahu's government has lost another "authoritarian, nationalist ally" in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary earlier this year, and that Serbia's stance will depend on Israel's own elections: "How Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel's own elections."

Jaksic also said the approach of "sitting on multiple chairs," which he said brought Serbia more harm than good, "will certainly be re-evaluated", and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera agreed that a period of internal reform will come before any realignment of Serbia's position abroad.