Democrats ride a 2026 midterm wave far bigger than forecast, toppling Texas and other GOP strongholds

Election analysts broadly expected Democrats to make gains in the 2026 midterms, but Tuesday's results delivered wider margins and bigger upsets than even the most ambitious predictions envisioned, including a historic breakthrough in Texas and other reliably Republican territory.

Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House, putting them on track for what could be their largest House majority in nearly two decades. The outcome amounted to a striking repudiation of President Donald Trump, who campaigned in 2024 on repairing the economy and ending all wars. Trump barnstormed for Republican candidates in the closing weeks of the cycle, but the effort could not rescue his party's faltering message.

The rejection was most dramatic in Texas, where Democrats notched a pair of stunning victories. James Talarico defeated Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott, in a state Trump had carried by double digits only two years earlier.

Polling had pointed to far tighter contests. A Fox News survey in October showed Talarico and Paxton essentially even, with Abbott ahead of Hinojosa, yet both Democrats prevailed by wide margins. The Cook Political Report labeled the Senate contest a "toss-up" on terrain it scored R+6, but as of the early hours of Wednesday, Talarico held 53.9% of the vote to Paxton's 44.2%, a 9.7 point advantage in a race polls had shown as even.

The governor's race was the widest miss of all. Hinojosa drew little national attention, and Cook rated the contest "lean Republican." Instead, she built a lead of nearly 7 percentage points as of 3 a.m. Wednesday.

The Texas results unfolded against a national backdrop of discontent. A Fox News poll put Trump's approval rating at 36%, while 74% of voters said they viewed the economy negatively. The Democratic surge reached well beyond Texas, producing Senate upsets in Kansas and South Carolina, two states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

In Kansas, Adam Hamilton defeated Sen. Roger Marshall, snapping a 94-year Republican winning streak in the state's Senate races and becoming the first Democrat Kansas voters have sent to the U.S. Senate in nearly a century. The race had been rated a "toss-up," but the result still represented a dramatic departure for the ruby-red state.

South Carolina delivered another shock, where Annie Andrews beat Sen. Darline Graham, who had been appointed to succeed her late brother, Lindsey Graham, but could not win at the ballot box. The contest was rated "lean Republican," yet Andrews led by 4.2 points as of Wednesday morning, ending a Graham family hold on the seat that began when Lindsey Graham was first elected in 2002, more than two decades ago.

Even in Maine, long treated as a purple state, the night produced a jolt. Democrat Troy Jackson ousted Republican Sen. Susan Collins, a five-term incumbent with three decades in office who was widely viewed as a career politician. Cook had called the race a "toss-up," but the 6 point margin was still regarded as a major political upset.

Taken together, the results showed a Democratic wave that crashed well past the traditional battlegrounds, sweeping into states and seats Republicans had long counted on carrying.