Neighborhood Watch: Israel's Election Fallout

Regional diplomats have remained largely silent since the recent Israeli election, which produced no clear winner. This quiet stems from uncertainty over whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will retain power or if his rival, Gadi Eisenkot, will form a coalition. Both scenarios carry distinct implications for neighboring Arab states.

Most observers expect little change in Israel's external relations with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt. Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry noted that Netanyahu and Eisenkot are effectively the same entity. He argued that the Arab world's relief at Netanyahu's potential loss does not signal a major policy shift. This sentiment is shared by Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who described an Eisenkot government as politically fragile with limited room for maneuver.

The domestic differences between the two camps are expected to be more pronounced than their foreign policy stances. Oppenheim stated that an Eisenkot administration would likely halt the judicial overhaul and open a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7. It would also pass a conscription law. However, she emphasized that a fundamental transformation in foreign policy is unlikely. The security doctrine adopted by nearly all Jewish Israeli parties, which involves pre-empting threats and holding buffer zones beyond borders, has become standard.

The prospect of a Palestinian state has faded from the political center. A Likud campaign poster declared the choice was between the right or Palestine. Eisenkot stated in August that no Palestinian state would be established under a government he forms. Oppenheim noted that support for statehood has collapsed across the Jewish political spectrum. With the exception of one party, mainstream Jewish parties support or acquiesce in the settlement enterprise and publicly oppose a Palestinian state on the 1967 lines.

A new coalition might cooperate more closely with left-wing parties and Arab-led factions, which hold approximately 19 seats in parliament. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group told the Associated Press that a new government could slow the acceleration of aggression in the occupied territories. Elizabeth Tsurkov of the Middle East Policy Council suggested such a government might contain settler violence in the West Bank. She argued that suppressing settler extremism is feasible because it damages Israel's international reputation.

Saudi Arabia remains a critical factor in regional stability. Since the October 7 attack, which has killed at least 70,000 Palestinians, Saudi conditions for normalization have hardened. The kingdom insists on progress toward Palestinian statehood before normalizing relations with Israel. Last week, Saudi Arabia co-signed a communique with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt stating that Israel is the fundamental source of instability in the region. Analysts suggest that a less hardline Israeli government would make it easier for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to admit to backchannel diplomacy.

In Syria, Israeli troops have conducted 1,996 ground operations in the southwest between January and September. A study by the Etana think tank found Israeli forces have occupied land up to 400 kilometers from the disputed border. Ksenia Svetlova of Chatham House suggested that a security agreement with Syria becomes more probable under an anti-Netanyahu bloc. She noted that such a deal would take time due to constant attacks from the extreme right. Previous negotiations under US stewardship collapsed in late 2026 when Israel refused to withdraw to 1974 boundary lines.

Lebanon prefers an Eisenkot-led government, viewing him as an easier negotiating partner than Netanyahu. Israel and Lebanon are currently negotiating a withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Israel claims to have established a buffer zone to fight Hezbollah, while Lebanon argues this is an invasion. Eisenkot is widely seen as the creator of the Dahiyeh Doctrine, which calls for asymmetric warfare in populated areas. Despite this, Lebanese officials believe his background as a former army commander would facilitate dialogue with President Joseph Aoun.

A Lebanese official told L'Orient Today that when Netanyahu was ousted in 2021, the country successfully negotiated a maritime agreement. That 2022 deal to share offshore territory stands as a precedent for cooperation. The current diplomatic landscape suggests that while internal Israeli politics may shift, the external pressures on Arab neighbors will remain consistent. The region continues to brace for a government that is politically fragile but militarily entrenched.

The election result has not yet produced a definitive change in the regional security architecture. Arab leaders are watching for signals on whether the new administration will adhere to the existing security doctrine or attempt to recalibrate its approach. Until a coalition is formally established, the status quo in the West Bank, Gaza, and southern Lebanon remains the baseline for regional planning.