Israel's opposition wins majority but stalls on coalition math

Benjamin Netanyahu lost his majority in the recent Israeli election, yet he may remain in power because his opponents refuse to govern alongside Palestinian-led parties.

The opposition bloc now holds a firm majority of seats. However, most Jewish parties pledged not to form a cabinet with Palestinian partners. This stance could allow Netanyahu to stay as caretaker prime minister for an extended period or trigger another round of voting.

Polling data suggests a disconnect between voters and their representatives. A survey conducted as polls closed found that a clear majority of opposition supporters preferred a coalition with the Ra'am party over continuing with Netanyahu. Despite this, opposition leaders remained silent on Wednesday while weighing their strategic options.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, criticized the hesitation. He stated that Netanyahu lost and urged parties to include Palestinian citizens, who constitute about 20 percent of the population. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, said his party was ready to help remove the current government through a Jewish-Arab partnership.

Netanyahu framed the result as a victory for the right, even though his coalition lost roughly 10 seats compared to the 64 it held in 2022. His campaign posters used the slogan "The right or Palestine" to cast Palestinian citizens as an internal threat. He now calls for a national-right government, arguing the right-wing bloc has decisive support among the Zionist public.

The election took place against a backdrop of heightened tension. Many Israelis viewed the vote as a test of democracy, while Palestinian citizens turned out in record numbers amid concerns about discrimination and violence in the occupied territories. A precedent for minority support from Palestinian parties exists in the government led by Yitzhak Rabin three decades ago.

Former general Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the largest opposition party, has not explicitly ruled out a partnership but set conditions that make it difficult. Israeli media reports have highlighted the stalemate, with one headline reading "No Clear Government" and another suggesting the path to a unity government has been paved.