Netanyahu's bloc trails as Israel's election count enters final phase

Benjamin Netanyahu's political camp leads the latest count in Israel's general election, yet the 77-year-old prime minister still lacks the parliamentary strength to form a government. As of 9pm local time on Wednesday, the Israeli Central Elections Committee had processed more than five million ballots. At that point, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot was expected to claim 48 seats. Both totals fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.

The voting cycle followed the October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. Many observers treated the ballot as a direct referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. Despite the close results, he will remain caretaker prime minister until a new administration is assembled. President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to begin consultations with party leaders next week once the official results are released. Herzog has asked parties to avoid another election that would delay the formation of a government.

More than 500,000 special double-envelope ballots remain uncounted. These votes were cast by soldiers, diplomats, and citizens voting away from their registered polling stations. The final tally of these ballots could shift the seat distribution between the two main blocs. Final results may emerge as early as Thursday evening, though no single winner is anticipated.

Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, are on track for a record combined total of 19 seats. This high turnout among Arab voters played a key role in preventing Netanyahu's coalition from reaching a majority. Netanyahu's Likud party disputed the outcome, stating that Arab parties stole the election through bribery, threats, and the use of prohibited software. The party said it transferred hundreds of testimonies and evidence to the police, the Shin Bet, and the Central Elections Committee regarding irregularities in Arab polling stations.

The Joint List responded by rejecting a government it described as a bloc of butchers. Leader Yousef Jabareen stated that the alliance could support an anti-Netanyahu government from outside but would not join it. The group pledged to work to remove the current government and prevent its return. Eisenkot, meanwhile, said his alliance is focused on bringing change and establishing a Zionist mobilization government. He noted that the electorate expressed no confidence in the government of October 7th and the shirking it represented.

Coalition building is a standard practice in Israel, as no party has ever won an outright majority. Eisenkot ruled out forming a minority government with Arab-led parties, a prospect Netanyahu also rejected. Analysts predict Netanyahu will form a unity government that could include Eisenkot, though such an outcome is not guaranteed. The process will depend on the final count of the remaining special ballots and subsequent negotiations among party leaders.