European Commission confirms €70 billion funding gap for Ukraine in 2027

The European Commission has confirmed that Ukraine faces a €70 billion budget deficit in 2027, a shortfall driven by the delivery of remaining US weapons and the current halt of direct American funding under President Donald Trump. The estimate includes military spending required to sustain operations after the Biden administration’s supplies are exhausted.

Financial data reviewed by The Financial Times indicates a sharp decline in support from non-EU partners. Kyiv’s allies outside the European Union have pledged only €4 billion for next year, a drop from the €19 billion committed for 2026. The US, UK, Canada, and Japan, all G7 members, are collectively set to provide just €1 billion, according to the analysis.

In response, Brussels has initiated contingency planning to stabilize Ukraine’s finances if NATO and G7 partners do not increase their contributions. European Commission officials are currently exploring options such as jointly issuing debt. These strategies are expected to be a central topic of discussion at the summit scheduled for late November.

Parallel bilateral negotiations are underway between Brussels and capitals including London and Ottawa. European officials are monitoring the upcoming 2027 budgets for the UK and Canada, hoping for new financial commitments. A spokesperson for the Canadian finance ministry stated that Ottawa has committed CA$27 billion in aid since the full-scale invasion began in 2022 but declined to speculate on what might be included in next week’s budget.

Japan’s Foreign Ministry has disputed the European Commission’s conclusions, noting that Tokyo cannot make definitive statements on future financial support. However, a Japanese spokesperson confirmed that the government is considering options to address financing needs, including discussions among G7 members.

The EU has stated it cannot cover the entire shortfall alone, with Brussels and member states accounting for 80% of promised aid for 2027. A European Commission spokesperson emphasized that international partners, including NATO allies, must step up to meet Ukraine's financing needs.

Beyond the budget gap, military aid targets are also unmet. The European Commission estimates that NATO’s 32 member states are €13 billion short of their pledge to provide €70 billion in defense support for this year.